It’s always the quiet weekends on paper where the most chaos tends to occur.
That tale as old as time in college football sure seemed to play out across Week 11 where three teams that were in the College Football Playoff after the first selection committee rankings lost and a few others (No. 2 Indiana and No. 9 Oregon) had close calls. As a result, the committee will have no shortage of things to discuss when they reconvene a second time to hash out a new Top 25 that should feature plenty of changes.
Here are five key questions for the committee after Week 11:
1. Did the Big 12 and ACC play themselves into being one-bid leagues?
It was a no good, very bad, downright awful week for the ACC.
It was already behind the eight ball Tuesday when its highest-ranked team checked in at No. 14. All the conference did Saturday was reconfirm those perceptions that this was no more than a one-bid league for the conference champion. No. 14 Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris was knocked out, and the Cavaliers lost to unranked Wake Forest. No. 15 Louisville lost in overtime to California, and No. 18 Miami messed around for a few quarters before taking care of business at home against Syracuse. Worse, Duke lost to UConn in nonconference play, and the marquee ACC Network game of Clemson–Florida State was just as sloppy as you expected.
It’s simply not a good league and somehow the likes of Pitt (7–2), SMU (7–3) and even the Blue Devils (5–4) are still in contention to make it to Charlotte for the conference title game. It’s not inconceivable that three or more teams could be tied at 7–1 or even a half-dozen at 6–2. Good luck to the committee trying to figure out what to do.
As for the Big 12, it got what it wanted in plenty of attention on Texas Tech’s win over BYU but the nature of that one-sided affair could cost the conference in the long term. The lack of nonconference wins means the league already had slim hopes of getting two teams into the field. It probably needs BYU to win out and win a close rematch with the Red Raiders to make two bids possible. How far the committee will drop the Cougars is something to keep a close eye on. If it’s behind Texas and Oklahoma, commissioner Brett Yormark might have to hope for Notre Dame to be upset to free up a spot for a pair of Big 12 teams.
2. Will Texas A&M overtake Indiana for the No. 2 seed?
It would surprise nobody if the top six remained in the same order from the first set of rankings, but there could be discussion over moving the Aggies ahead of the Hoosiers. Indiana needed a borderline miracle touchdown as part of an incredible last-minute drive to win at Penn State (for the first time ever). It was the second time this season the Hoosiers have gone on the road and played a close one. Depending if Illinois moves into the rankings Tuesday, it’s possible Curt Cignetti’s team winds up with only a single Top 25 win and a fresh set of highlights showing a struggle against a program with an interim coaching staff and a backup quarterback.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M handled Missouri and its backup signal-caller handily for a third consecutive road win in SEC play. The victory over Notre Dame continues to age well and Mike Elko’s defense remains salty as can be on third down, but the team also may have just a single Top 25 win assuming the Tigers and LSU fall out of the committee’s rankings.
This may come down to a simple, question for the 12 selection committee members voting and, given the last impression of these two teams, it wouldn’t be foolish to think the SEC’s lone undefeated squad slides up a spot.
3. Is USC the only shot at landing Big Ten more than three bids?
There’s already a pretty well-established top three in the Big Ten that has to like their CFP chances but netting a fourth bid is a bit trickier after Saturday. Iowa seems out of the running after dropping to 6–3 and likely will be out of the rankings. No. 23 Washington promptly went out on the road and couldn’t move the ball against a Wisconsin team that had to very publicly go out on a limb to support its embattled head coach.
That leaves just Michigan and USC among the teams in the Big Ten with two losses, both of whom are 5–1 in conference play going into Week 12. The Wolverines would have a phenomenal case if they win out, meaning they beat Ohio State (again), which may even send them to Indianapolis for a shot at the title. However, they probably lose any chance of making the CFP if they finish 9–3 given that they lost to an SEC team (Oklahoma) that could be a common opponent against several other at-large candidates.
Enter USC, which got pushed around a bit by Northwestern on Friday but is somehow 7–2 with plenty to play for down the stretch. The Trojans are home against Iowa in a big test, then go on the road to Oregon in two weeks. The conference office probably wouldn’t mind if the Trojans win that one to solidify four bids. This week’s rankings will play a role in that scenario. It will be very interesting to see how high Lincoln Riley’s team might climb in Tuesday’s rankings. If they’re inside the top 15, they may have a shot to prove people wrong around Los Angeles and beyond.
4. Which teams from the American will be in the Top 25?
There were no Group of 5 teams ranked in the committee’s initial Top 25, but that shouldn’t be the case this coming week. South Florida looked impressive yet again in moving to 7–2, while Tulane beat Memphis, the previous G5 bid selection. The Green Wave also have wins over Duke and Northwestern. Then there’s the case of North Texas sitting at 8–1 with the lone loss coming to the Bulls.
It becomes a very big deal for the committee to figure out if one or two American teams can make the Top 25 because neither South Florida nor Tulane play each other and the Bulls already beat North Texas. That puts a number of tiebreakers into the ether if there are three or more teams that finish the season with just one loss.
5. Could a one-loss James Madison actually overtake the ACC for an automatic bid?
Speaking of Group of 5 teams making the rankings, it will be very intriguing to see if the Dukes wind up at the bottom of the Top 25 on the outside chance their 8–1 record impresses the committee. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities that there’s a three- or four-loss ACC champion ranked between Nos. 20 and 25 and that James Madison winning out (with a close, lone loss on the road to Louisville) would actually be enough to vault them into position as the fifth-highest conference champion. That would miraculously earn them an auto-bid to the playoff out of the Sun Belt and is quite the fun scenario to think about even if Tuesday doesn’t have Bob Chesney’s team in the rankings.
If they do, however, be prepared for full-blown panic around the ACC.
